The Russian invasion of Ukraine

 
 

The world has watched – and reacted – as Russia conducts a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine, which was launched more than one month ago. Almost four million Ukrainians have been displaced, and there has already been thousands of casualties. Accused of war crimes, President of Russia Vladimir Putin’s actions have been widely condemned.

There has also already been mammoth ramifications for food security and supply chains.

“Ukraine has only compounded a catastrophe on top of a catastrophe,” David Beasley, executive director of the World Food Program, the United Nations’ agency that feeds 125 million people a day, said. “There is no precedent even close to this since World War II.”

In response, countries from the West have imposed wide-ranging punishments including sanctions (including on the Russian central bank), removing Russian banks from the SWIFT financial communication system, cutting off trade supply, and even corporate measures from companies such as McDonald’s and Starbucks.

The Harvard Gazette calls it, “An unprecedented experiment in unplugging one of the world’s biggest nations from the global economy.”

What implications could this have for the global meat sector?

It is important to note that Russia is largely self-sufficient in meat protein, so the sanctions will likely have limited impact on global meat trade. However, of concern is the inflationary cost of meat.

Russia is one of the biggest producers in agriculture and food globally, but perhaps surprisingly, so too is Ukraine, and its farms are about to miss critical planting and harvesting seasons.

But just how important is Ukraine as an agricultural country? Let’s break it down: 

  • 1st in Europe for arable land area;

  • 3rd place in the world by the area of black soil (25% of world's volume);

  • 1st place in the world in exports of sunflower and sunflower oil;

  • 2nd place in the world in barley production;

  • 3rd largest producer and 4th largest exporter of corn in the world;

  • 4th largest producer of potatoes in the world;

  • 5th largest rye producer in the world;

  • 8th place in the world in wheat exports;

  • 9th place in the world in the production of chicken eggs.

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has seen the price of fuel, maize, wheat and fertiliser soar – they are major exporters of the latter pair in particular – having significant impacts on all agricultural production. Anxiety is now rife in the global business world.

Questions around how we feed a growing global population have long been asked and have since intensified in the face of conflict-exacerbated trade issues. 

Speaking at GMA’s Networking Session in March, Quality Meat Scotland’s Sarah Millar said meat could play a significant role in helping address the concerns of food security. 

There is an opportunity for the world’s meat industry to leverage its strengths in, among others, local and nutrient-dense food production. Domestic supply chains and local meat growers can fill the hole left by other produce hindered by war, a reminder of the livestock industry’s value in food sustainability and security.

The effects won’t just be felt in the short term; ramifications will be long-lasting. The International Monetary Fund warned Russia’s aggression will have “severe” effects on the world economy.

 

Key areas of impact:

  • Petrol prices have continued to reach record highs as gas costs rage upwards. And as supply risks grow, so too have crude oil prices.

    Russia is the world's second top producer of crude oil, after Saudi Arabia, and supplies approximately one-third of Europe's needs. But this is a mutually dependent relationship, Russia requires the revenue, perhaps now more than ever.

    The surging cost of fuel more than any other input cost is expected to impact businesses, and transportation costs will follow suit, further disrupting global supply chains.

    As Cornwall Insight’s, an energy analysis company, Robert Buckley says, “There is going to be a very high price for oil for a very long time, and even the prospect of physical shortages.”

  • Fertiliser prices were already high due to soaring wholesale gas prices, however it is further intensifying. Russia is the world's biggest fertiliser exporter, and its government has urged local producers to halt fertiliser exports.

    This has resulted in a simple supply vs demand response, backed by one of the world’s biggest companies, Yara International. The company buys considerable amounts of essential raw materials from Russia, but says this is adding to the prospect of a global food crisis.

    The authoritarian regime also produces nutrients, like potash, urea and phosphate, which are key ingredients in fertiliser. Similarly, Ukraine has deposits of those same key ingredients, and exports have been limited.

    This is considerable, considering half the world's population gets food because of fertilisers.

    Shortened supply of fertiliser will have a direct impact on the global meat sector. For example, Brazil sells most of its soybeans to China, which uses much of the crop to feed livestock. Fewer soybeans at a greater cost could force farmers to cut back on such animal feed, leading to smaller cows, pigs and chickens — and higher prices for meat.

    This leads into our next topic.

  • Feed and grain prices have also surged to historic peaks. It took just two days from the start of Russia's assault on Ukraine for the price of grain for animal feed to jump 10 per cent on the open market in Spain.

    Ukraine supplies the EU with almost 60 per cent of its corn, and nearly half of a key component in the grains needed to feed livestock. Russia too is a major supplier of wheat and other staples.

    As such, the United Nations has warned feed prices could rise by up to 20 per cent.

    The rising cost of feed is not helped by China stockpiling for its pigs, as it tries to recover from a devastating outbreak of African swine fever.

  • Panic buying-induced limitations were common throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, but now similar actions are resulting from the war. ‘The Local’ reported that Spanish supermarkets have begun rationing the sale of sunflower oil in an effort to stop stockpiling, over shortage fears due to Russia's invasion of key supplier Ukraine.

 

What impacts is the war having in your region?

  • Russia and Ukraine are not export markets for Australian red meat products. As such, direct implications for its red meat exports are limited in the short term.

    However, as founder of Agsecure, Andrew Henderson writes for Beef Central, of more immediate concern is Russia’s seemingly strengthening relationship with China. While the former was Australia’s 48th largest trading partner in 2020, the latter is Australia’s largest two-way partner – accounting for almost one-third of all its global trade.

    In recent years, the world’s most populous nation has slapped tariffs and sanctions on Australian exports such as beef and lamb, wine, and cotton. However, the Australian Government has flagged a returning serve if China provides arms to Russia, which will be of consequence for local producers, processors, and marketers.

  • New Zealand’s direct trading relationship with Russia is of more consideration; the authoritarian regime is Aotearoa’s 27th largest trading partner.

    Almost all imports were crude oil, but food exports to Russia totalled approximately $233 million NZD.

  • The EU is now reviewing its sustainable food strategy – a result of a decline in grain and fertiliser imports.

    French president Emmanuel Macron said the sustainable food strategy was “based on a pre-Ukraine war world” and should be reviewed. It means for now, emissions reductions are taking a back seat.

    The French Agriculture Minister Denormandie echoed the demand to revise the Farm to Fork strategy through the lens of food security.

    Agriculture Commissioner of European Commission, Wojciechowski stated it does not want to set the strategy aside, but conceded the need “to look at all these objectives again in the context of food security given the new situation that we’re faced with” adding, “all of this will be done over the next few weeks.”

    While food security is high on the priority list for the EU, the Financial Times reports European countries are likely to face price rises rather than shortages.

  • Through a time when hope seems scarce, The Atlantic published an interesting and perhaps previously obscure angle; that the high prices could actually improve the livelihood of millions of sub-Saharan African farmers.

  • The White House has signalled intent – alongside its European Allies – to ramp up sanctions on Russia.

    But Americans will feel the effects closer to home. Inflation is already surging, hitting the highest level in 40 years, seeing grocery prices already up 8.6 per cent, according to government data.

    However, economists expect the war to further inflate those prices, especially after US President Joe Biden announced a ban on imports of Russian oil, natural gas and coal.